Monday 27 December 2010

When Is A U-Turn a U-Turn?

One of the most famous though pernicious political phrases is 'the U-Turn'. It is pernicious because it generalises where one shouldn't, ad famous because it happes so bloody often. Commonly the word 'U-turn' carries with it negative connotations. It doesn't have to but often should. A u-turn is an admission that you were wrong because of the inevitable and, in some cases correct, chorus of 'Well if you're wrog about this the what else are you wrog about?. Governments struggle to do this, yet they are made up of humans who make these mistakes. So here it is; a brief guide to the U-Turn.

1. A Promise U-Turn: Not a U-Turn in the strict sense but more often known as a 'broken promise'. Not a disaster so long as its managed well. Politicians break manifesto pledges and 'aspirations' all the time and there are many good reasons for this, the most oft cited being variations on 'changed circumstances'. Oppositions will attack you for these but it only is a huge problem if a) You break a totemic promise or b) The broken promises become so many that your untrustworthiness becomes a theme. a) Is currently a problem for the Lib Dems and b) became a problem for New Labour and seems to be becoming one for the coalition.

2.The Implementation U-Turn: Soon to be known as a 'Govian Not'. This will likely be on a small element of a wider policy. Take saving money from schools or the NHS, or implementing a new law. In the rush to save money/solve a social problem bad decisions will inevitably be made which hurt specific groups or whose wider implications create worse publicity or results than expected. The government will state that they have 'listened to concerns' and have reconsidered. More damaging to the individual minister involved who looks a bit of a fool having defended the policy then apologising than the government. A clever PM can even overrule a minister and gain kudos from this. Beware using these too often however as too many lave you looking indecisive, and involves you admitting you were wrong in the first place, however virtue is probably on the side of the turner here.

3.The Destruction Derby: In this amusing 1990s playstation game you gained points by winning races and smashing up cars. If you were losing by a long way it became more profitable to reverse your direction and smash up all the other cars, at the cost of your own. This is the worst type of U-Turn that can wreck a government. Gordon Brown had 2, the election that never was and the 10p tax band. John Major's government had Black Wednesday and the Poll Tax (shared with Thatcher). This occurs when a government's policy is such a failure that it is forced to destroy its own credibility by reversing a flagship policy already implemented as the alternative is even worse. For the current government this would be the reversal of their deficit reduction plan, or a breakdown in social cohesion on such a grand scale that it forced them to change tack (think huge crime increases, more in poverty, NHS struggling to cope.). Difficult but not impossible to recover from: if you can salvage enough points from wrecking the opposition you could still squeak in a la 1992.

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